In a labor market that has shown remarkable post-pandemic resilience, a troubling trend is emerging beneath the surface: recent college graduates are facing an increasingly uphill battle to find employment. Despite holding bachelor’s degrees or higher, many young adults are unemployed or underemployed in numbers not seen in years. A recent report by Oxford Economics provides a sobering look at the structural issues contributing to this unsettling development.Recent college graduates—defined as individuals aged 22 to 27 with a bachelor’s degree or higher—are experiencing a disproportionate share of the US national unemployment burden, suggests the Oxford Economics May 25 report. Although they account for only 5% of the US labor force, they contributed a staggering 12% of the 60 basis point rise in the national unemployment rate since mid-2023. Their unemployment rate now hovers around 6%, a sharp increase of 1.6 percentage points, nearly triple the national average rise of 0.6 points in the same period (Oxford Economics, May 2025).It’s a sharp break from the past when college grads had a job-market edge, even in recessions. Here’s why that advantage is fading now.

AI and tech restructuring

One of the primary drivers behind this rise is a significant slowdown in hiring within the technology sector. According to the Oxford Economics report, this slowdown has disproportionately affected entry-level roles—a category dominated by recent graduates.Since 2022, employment among 22–27-year-olds in computer science and mathematical occupations has dropped by 8%, even as employment in the same fields for workers aged over 27 increased slightly by 0.8%. Meanwhile, employment for college graduates in other occupations grew by 2% (Oxford Economics).This trend coincides with the increasing adoption of artificial intelligence (AI), which is beginning to automate roles traditionally filled by new graduates. Entry-level tech jobs are particularly vulnerable, creating a supply-demand mismatch in the labor market for graduates with technical degrees.

Hiring freeze in tech sector

One of the most significant factors is the slowdown in hiring within the technology sector. After years of rapid expansion, job openings in professional and business services—especially within tech-related fields like computer systems design—have dropped sharply, declining by over 40% since 2021, as reported by Oxford Economics. This contraction is particularly damaging to recent graduates, who disproportionately target entry-level roles in tech. These positions are no longer being created at the same rate, leaving many job seekers without opportunities in the very sectors their degrees trained them for.

New entrants in the labor market

Much of the increase in unemployment among recent graduates comes from those entering the job market for the first time. The Oxford Economics report found that of the 1.6 percentage point rise in graduate unemployment since mid-2023, a striking 1.35 points (85%) can be attributed to new labor market entrants who simply cannot find work. Permanent job losses, by contrast, have only contributed 0.25 percentage points to that total. This highlights how challenging it is today for young professionals to get their foot in the door.

Oversupply of graduates in shrinking fields

Another major issue is the imbalance between what students are studying and where jobs are actually available. Over the past decade, degrees in computer science surged in popularity due to booming tech employment. But with that sector now contracting, there’s a glut of qualified candidates and not enough roles to absorb them. This mismatch is one of the main contributors to the 1.6 percentage point increase in the recent graduate unemployment rate since mid-2023 (Oxford Economics, 2025).

Reluctance to switch industries

Even among those who are unemployed, many recent graduates show a reluctance to pivot to other sectors. The data shows that individuals with degrees in professional, scientific, and technical services fields are more likely to hold out for jobs in their area of study rather than switch to alternative industries. While some are willing to accept underemployment—jobs that don’t require a degree—most are unwilling to drastically shift career paths, further prolonging their job search.

Sliding male participation in the workforce

Labor force participation among college-educated men has slipped by 0.5 percentage points since the pandemic, signaling a quiet retreat from the job market. According to Oxford Economics, this decline suggests rising disillusionment among young men—even those with degrees. Meanwhile, college-educated women have moved in the opposite direction, with their participation rising by 1.5 percentage points. As more women step into the workforce, the gender gap in job engagement is shifting in unexpected ways—raising fresh concerns about productivity, gender dynamics, and the future shape of the U.S. economy.