The caste census, seen as crucial for evolving policies, may also open a Pandora’s box of reservation debates, especially in Tamil Nadu, where quota politics is heating up. Tamil Nadu’s quota politics is under scrutiny as the Union govt-proposed caste census sparks demand for increased reservation and potential legal and political challenges.The DMK govt has claimed the census is a “hard-earned victory.” Parties such as PMK are pushing for additional data for internal quota, while Thol Thirumavalavan’s VCK is demanding 60 notified scheduled caste communities be declared adi dravidars. This has raised concerns about the impact on existing quotas and the need for legal amendments to address proportional representation.The Tamil Nadu govt has given the state’s backward classes commission time until July 11 to file its report on internal reservation for most backward classes and denotified communities due to a lack of sufficient primary data. This followed the Supreme Court striking down in 2022 the 10.5% vanniyar quota, a strategic move by the AIADMK govt, just hours before the 2021 assembly election. The contentious quota followed considerable negotiation between the two parties, with AIADMK’s potential ally PMK pushing for a 15% quota before settling for 10.5%.The Supreme Court cited the use of antiquated data as the reason for its decision to strike it down.DMK ally VCK believes it’s time for adjustments in the reservation system. “Increase in SC reservation is long overdue. SCs make up 24% of Tamil Nadu’s population. We want a proportional reservation to increase from 18%,” says VCK MP D Ravikumar. “The ST quota is at 1% but must get an increase of 2%. When the OBC quota is addressed, SC/ST will also have to be taken care of too. Legal challenges have to be faced. Amendments should be made to change the cap of 50% on reservation.“The Modi govt’s 2021 decision to group seven SC communities under the devendra kula vellalar label has fuelled demands. The move, along with the existing 3% internal quota for arunthathiyars, has prompted VCK’s adi dravidar demand. The SC communities that form arunthathiyars include chakkiliyan, madari, madiga, pagadi, thoti, and adi Andhra.VCK’s political opponent, PMK leader Anbumani Ramadoss, has publicly offered support to DMK if vanniyars are granted a 15% internal quota. PMK had previously pushed for a caste census at the national level. In 2008, as Union Minister, Anbumani presented a petition to the Centre, signed by more than 140 OBC MPs, calling for such a census. Now, PMK says the Union govt’s planned caste census will be superficial, arguing that additional statistics are needed to provide internal reservation within TN.“The state govt must conduct its own caste survey under the Collection of Statistics Act, 2008, to know details including caste, education, employment, and economy,” says PMK spokesman K Balu. “Without this, internal quotas will not be provided. The state should not wait for census data.”The caste census is expected to open the floodgates for quota adjustments. There is an under-representation of arunthathiyars in jobs despite the exclusive 3% quota, says writer and Tamil Nadu Sakiya Arunthathiyar Sangam president M Mathivannan. “Arunthathiyars constitute much of adi dravidars in the state, but they are under-represented in jobs. The caste census will bring out the true status.” He urges the state govt to increase internal reservation based on the caste census.A former AIADMK minister has cautioned that smaller communities benefiting from bigger quotas could lose out if reservation is based on population numbers. “The 50 lakh strong, 24 manai Telugu chettiar community should be granted MBC status,” says former AIADMK minister Pollachi V Jayaraman. “The community falls under BC and MBC categories. The census will reveal their backwardness in education and employment.“If the demand for population-based reservation is conceded, it will result in more than 90% quota. This is higher than the existing 69% quota, which is under judicial review. The Supreme Court ruling in the Indra Sawhney case has set a precedent for reservation policies. The court stated that Article 16 (4) requires “adequate” rather than “proportionate.” This judgment has been consistently cited by courts, including in the recent Maratha quota verdict, which struck down the law due to the community’s “adequate representation” in public service.As the 50% reservation cap cannot be breached, the introduction of the 10% EWS quota has drawn sharp criticism from certain quarters.DMK, in 2021, made a poll promise to push for a caste census to regain OBC support perceived to have been alienated by AIADMK due to internal quota for vanniyars. The DMK govt is believed to have avoided conducting a survey due to potential implications. Following the Union cabinet’s decision to hold a caste census, DMK has been actively promoting the leadership’s efforts, believing this move could benefit the party in the 2026 assembly election.Former bureaucrat Ashok Vardhan Shetty says a caste census will help address the issue of caste-based disparities. “Not counting caste will not make it go away any more than not taking a CT scan will make your tumour disappear. A caste census is the statistical equivalent of opening your eyes to confront reality. If marginalised castes don’t show up in the Census and survey data, they don’t show up in policies. When that happens, they disappear from public imagination.What we’re left with is a statistical fog in which dominant castes monopolise income, wealth, and opportunity while pretending caste doesn’t exist,” he says. Since 1951, the census has enumerated 2,000 castes and tribes under the SC/ST categories, says Shetty. “Adding the remaining 4,000-plus OBCs and upper castes is a simple extension of the method and legally warranted since OBCs and EWS among the upper castes enjoy reservation.”There is an expectation that the caste census will help protect the existing 69% reservation in Tamil Nadu as the constitutional validity of this law has been challenged in the apex court. DMK MP and former additional solicitor general P Wilson says the Union govt should increase reservation for OBC, SC/ST, as the state already has the highest. He believes a caste census will help strengthen the state’s 69% reservation and potentially increase the quota.“If conducted properly, the caste census would provide strong data to strengthen the case before the Supreme Court along with reports the state possesses through various commissions,” he says.Email your feedback with name and address to southpole.toi@timesofindia.com