Bengaluru: Driven by 60% excess pre-monsoon rainfall and with forecasts indicating an above normal rainy season, domain experts and stakeholders anticipate a second consecutive year of milk overproduction, a prospect that is not good news for either Karnataka Milk Federation (KMF) or dairy farmers.
While excessive pre-monsoon rain in 2024 helped overcome severe drought, it resulted in overproduction of milk. Daily inflow at KMF crossed the record 1-crore litres mark in July, compared to an average 85 lakh litres. Domain experts and stakeholders say, this year, peak inflow is likely to touch a staggering 1.2 crore litres by July-Aug.

“The signs are clear as daily inflow has steadily increased since Jan,” said Rajkumar HS, president, Bangalore Milk Union Limited (Bamul). “At present, it is around 92 lakh litres, and inflow will most likely peak at 1.2 crore litres.”
Bamul, which covers Bengaluru Urban, Bengaluru Rural, and Ramanagara districts, is one of 17 milk unions that receive high quantities of milk from farmers. Rajkumar said daily inflow has reached 15.8 lakh litres compared to an average 15 lakh, and it is expected to cross 18.5 lakh at its peak.
Domain experts attribute surplus production to bountiful rain the state has already received and anticipate production to skyrocket with both Indian Meteorological Department and Skymet predicting 5% more than normal rainfall across the state. North interior Karnataka, especially, is likely to receive excessive rain.
“This will result in lush fodder and adequate drinking water which is conducive for dairy farming,” said Prof MN Thimme Gowda, head of the agrometeorology department at University of Agricultural Sciences, Bengaluru.
But, as in 2024, the glut is expected to pose a challenge. Milk unions will be forced to discourage inflows, and KMF will have to convert surpluses into skimmed milk powder — an expensive affair and a lose-lose situation for both farmers and KMF. While production cost of 1kg of milk powder is around Rs 240, the market price is only around Rs 120. Some milk unions might cut procurement prices, putting farmers in distress. The govt had raised retail prices of milk by Rs 9 per litre over three hikes since July 2023.
“Given last year’s experiences, KMF should try and increase milk exports to neighbouring states and abroad while expanding the market for milk products, including curd, ghee, and condiments,” said Suryanarayana PR, president, Karnataka State Milk Producers-Farmers Association. “More importantly, the govt should increase incentives for farmers from the current Rs 5 per litre to at least Rs 7. Congress promised this in its election manifesto; it is time for it to walk the talk.”