HYDERABAD: A tweet posted on February 28 by a Hyderabad-based earthquake enthusiast predicting a tremor near Mandalay, Myanmar, has triggered discussion among seismologists and citizens alike, after a 7.7 magnitude quake struck the region nearly a month later.
The prediction, shared by Siva Sitaram, a GIS Engineer from Sainikpuri and a native of Eluru with a diploma in mechanical engineering, mentioned a potential ~6.5 magnitude earthquake near coordinates 21.54°N 94.34°E—covering regions like Mandalay, Naypyidaw, and Sittwe.
The prediction date was February 28. A 6.0 magnitude quake eventually occurred along Myanmar’s Sagaing fault in late March.
He founded the Seismo Research and Development Center in Hyderabad.
“I used multiple parameters. 18 out of 100 cases is a good success rate. Sometimes the date may vary by one to a few months, but location and frequency in predictions that were successful where actuals and predictions are the same,” he added.
Sitaram, who works with GIS systems and has been researching earthquakes since 2004, claims to use a combination of methods—solar radiation patterns, geomagnetic field changes, atmospheric data, and weather models—to issue early warnings. His website, www.seismo.in, tracks earthquakes across more than 10 countries and includes predictions for regions like Japan, Ethiopia, the Philippines, and India.
He says he has maintained six years of earthquake data and made over 100 predictions, of which about 18 have matched with actual events. He now predicts a quake of more than 7 magnitude in Dharamshala in the next few months.
Despite the coincidence, experts remain cautious. Dr. Srinagesh, former Chief Scientist at the National Geophysical Research Institute (NGRI), acknowledged he has been observing Siva’s work. “We can’t dismiss his predictions outright, but they must be scientifically validated,” he said.
He pointed out that the recent quake occurred along the Sagaing fault, where both the Indian and Myanmar tectonic plates interact. Of the nine major quakes there, seven exceeded magnitude 7. The last one was in 2012.
Srinagesh emphasised that instead of relying solely on predictions, govts should focus on strengthening infrastructure in high-risk zones.
Siva’s work has drawn attention on social media, particularly. He has shared that his current model, though developed with limited equipment, is in its final testing stage. He hopes to expand it to predict quakes in over 50 countries in the future.
While most modern alert systems in countries like Japan and Mexico give warnings 30–40 seconds before an earthquake using sensors, Siva claims his method can indicate events one week to one month in advance.
The debate continues as his supporters call for further research into his model, while scientists underline the need for peer-reviewed validation before any such system can be taken seriously by official agencies.